Week 7 - Scenario Planning

Scenario Planning Activity

-   Develop ideas of where you could incorporate the use of Scenario Planning in your organization

Scenario Planning is the part of strategic planning that relates to the tools and technologies for managing the uncertainties and discontinuities of change in the future (Ringland, 2006).

To my understanding, the uncertainties do not like risk in which we can “calculate” the chance of occurrence of a particular event. The uncertainties mean we know nothing about the outcomes and consequences.

As I am teaching associate degree programs at community college, I think I’m interested much about the “survival” of associate degree programs in future due to different driving forces in the environment. May I share herewith my ideas developed according to the five steps Scenario Planning Process as below.

1. Identify focal issue

·   my organization has to think the uncertainties about the demand of associate degree programs in Hong Kong and how this will impact on our organization.

2. Search for driving forces / 3. Find uncertainties

·     Political Forces - you may know the new Chief Executive of HK will be on board in July 2012.  This may indicate to us that the education policy may undergo a change again. Currently, the demand of associate degree programs is high because of the double cohorts of students from DSE and HKAL. But this may no longer be true in the future. The government always encourages the establishment of new private universities. This also impacts on the “survival” of associate degree programs.

·  Demographic Forces - now more and more Mainland China students are interested in studying in Hong Kong.  So associate degree programs may be their choice.

·    Cultural Forces - although Mainland China students are interested in associate degree programs, we have to manage the cultural difference problems, like language, learning style and ability.

·    Technological Forces - with the advanced technology, more and more distance learning programs will open as they become more suited to students’ learning style, e.g. providing convenience to students. 

·  Competition - it’s expected that more and more private universities will be established soon.  This definitely puts associate degree program in a less favourable position.

4. Formulate scenario logic

• Demand of associate degree program increases because of change in government policy on education
• demand of associate degree program drops sharply
• demand of associate degree program remains stable, due to the intake of Mainland China students
• associate degree programs shut down at all

  

5. Strategic analysis

Possible course of actions to address the scenarios:

• lobbing government in respect of education policy
• proactively doing promotion in Mainland China
• “transform” college into private university
• open new part-time programs
• collaboration with overseas universities for top degree programs
• teaching staff may be made redundant in case the demand of associate degree programs drops

You may find interested in watching the 9-phases for proper scenario planning analysis.

Or else, you may look at the "full version" of "Executive Education - Scenario Planning and Decision Making by Dr. Paul Shoemaker".

Week 7 - Scenario Planning

In this week, I will be looking into education, specifically into my organization using scenario planning approach. Despite the imaginative nature of scenario planning, there are systematic ways in carrying out the process. Below is one of the approaches to accomplish the process.

(Source: http://www.gbn.com/images/scenario_thinking_process.gif)

Focus

I am looking into the development of my organization in the next 10 years.

Dynamics

Contextual environment

• Changing of government official
  The current session of government will end its service this year. The new Chief Executive as well as the composition of government officials are yet to be decided. The vision and the direction in education could be changing dramatically.
• Increasing number of children with non-local parents
  With an increasing birth rate of children with non-local parents, the composition of student population will be changing. There could be more Mandarin-speaking students in Hong Kong, and the culture of students could vary a lot.

Working environment

• Advance of technology in e-Books and e-Resources
  e-Learning has been proposed for some years. The evolution of new products and new technologies can change the habitat in education a lot. Students may be able to afford an e-Book by their own, enabling them to learn from multimedia elements and taking notes in electronic format.

My organization

• Changing of principal and vice-principals
  Our vice-principal will retire next year, and our principal will be retiring in 3 years. With the change in head personnel in my school, the vision and direction could be changing. Moreover, even though new management may be in place in the next few years, they might not be very much familiar with our work now. More jobs will be taken over by middle managers to avoid problems during handover.
• Opting out from the through-train mode
  Under the through-train mode, our school is required to admit all students from our affiliated primary school who are intended to come. The intake of students has become worse, as the more capable ones are always looking for better schools, while the less capable ones tend to take our school as a shelter. Last year, we decided to opt out from the through-train mode, and the primary 1 students of this session will be the last batch of through-train students. In 10 years, our school will be able to admit outsiders again.

Scenario Framework

Among those uncertainties above, I would be taking the increasing number of children with non-local parent and the opting out from the through-train mode to be the dynamics to be studied in this section.

When looking into the increase in birth rate of children with non-local parents, it brings impacts to education in Hong Kong. These children may be admitting to local schools or having their education in mainland China. If they decide to study in mainland China, the number of students may drop, and there may be school closing down due to insufficient number of students. On the other hand, if they decide to study in Hong Kong, more social benefits should be imposed in school. Moreover, the language and cultural background may change.

At the same time, we have terminate the through-train mode with our affiliated primary school. It could be positive as we can control the quality of the student intake. However, we do not have a guarantee number of students for each session. We need to work harder in order to raise the school's reputation, so as to minimize the negative effects from this change.

Insight and Foresight

In view of the above study, it is likely that the student intake will drop in both quality and quantity in the next 10 years. We may need to plan ahead for the change.

More References:

IEA Training Manual - Module 6

http://www.unep.org/ieacp/iea/training/manual/module6/1255.aspx

How Scenario planning is good

http://www.scenarioselling.com/?page_id=59

Week 6 - Storytelling in Organizational Learning

A few years ago my school decided to buy a new Optical Mark Recognition (OMR) system for Multiple Choices answer sheets marking. The salesman we had cooperated with recommends a model with a lot of e-Filing functions such as OCR, Files managing, Document routing, Security access control, etc... The price of it is just a little bit higher than a single function OMR machine. In expectation, my school bought this system because of the more functions for the same price.

However, after the system introduced in my school, the assessing rate is very low. It is because there are too many functions so that it is too complicated for the teachers to use. Although the system provider provided some training courses for the teachers, the teachers felt the operation method obstruct their teaching work.
Finally last year my school bought a new OMR system with only specialized function for MC answer sheets marking. And the assessing rate of it was high.

I believe the story above inspire me that when we introduce new innovation, we can’t only seek for more and more functions. We must also concern on the capacity of the users and the matching-up with the work-flow of the work.

Week 6 - Story Telling in Learning Organization

Do you think that a “simple” technology does make difference? When I teach in the class, I prefer providing examples, elaboration as well as additional materials in lecture powerpoint to support my illustration. This may be students’ learning practices - they always directly copy “all the additional things” from the powerpoint slides in their handout, rather listen, digest and jot notes. In view of this situation, some students may need more time to write down the things or some may not listen so well about what I am telling. This definitely affects the quality of learning and the pace of teaching.

Then I try a mean to improve the situation - encouraging students taking photo of the additional slides, if necessary, after I finish what I have to teach. It is because near to all students should have mobile phones with camera feature on hand.  At the very beginning, it may be again the students’ learning practices - most students still insist on jotting down by hand rather using technology. To better let students alert that photo could be taken after teaching, I have inserted a “camera” picture in those slides where additional materials are provided, like below examples.

This can give a signal to students that they have to listen to me firstly and time will be given for photo-taking afterwards.  The situation turns better now. More and more students can pay attention on what I’m teaching rather than jotting notes only. Yes, only a “simple” technology can also make difference.

You may agree that a good story telling should need the help of good presentation skills. Then you have to watch the “Present Like Steve Jobs” in which we can learn about the secrets of Steve Jobs' presentation skills. Steve Jobs is not only a technology giant, but also an excellent “salesman”.

week 6 - summaries of similarities and differences (secondary colleges) & general obesrvations (post-sec colleges) in using technology adoption model

A table listing the similarities and differences between two secondary schools (A & B) in using technology adoption model (i.e eClass platform)

	Sec School A	Sec School B
Similarities
Decision in implementation	Principal, IT coordinator	Top management
Users	Administrators, teachers (limited to students records in eClass)	Some IT elites, some non IT teachers
Differences
Launching of eClass	Success in launching	Not welcome, users especially teachers are not interested
Application	New function on eClass once the teachers are comfortable in using eClass platform	Sharing answers for assignments and quiz, discuss news on eClass platform, students participate in comment on peer’s work, career guidance teachers use the eClass platform to provide guidance and counseling to students for ease of their direct face to face consultation

A table listing the general observations of two users (C & D) in using Technological Adoption Model (i.e. Blackboard System tools) in a higher education institute:

Blackboard System	User C	User D
College culture	Not strong	Strong in university, but not strong in community college
Change agent	Principals and head of divisions	Top management
Users	Teachers and students are the common users	Administrators, e-learning team, teachers and students
Resistance to change	Yes for most teachers especially those who are lack of enough technical competencies to master the usage of blackboard	Yes for most teachers especially those who have less hand on experience in using blackboard.  Teachers seldom focus on infrastructure and technical training in using the blackboard for better  teaching purposes
Application	Lecture notes, tutorial assignments, ignoring other uses like discussion forum, quizzes setting and assessments	Notice, announcements, lecture notes and tutorial assignments, quiz result announcement
Room for improvement	1.      Principals or top management takes the lead role of using features like discussion forum for staff communication. 2.      Positive enforcements should be made like staff recognition, merits and award given. 3.      Students should be encouraged to use blackboard to facilitate better learning 4.      Teachers should be motivated and pushed hard by management to constant use of blackboard in their teaching and administration work	1.      Same as item (1) 2.      Teachers should change or redesign their teaching concepts and utilize the new ICT technology in their teaching. 3.      Same as item (3). 4.      Teachers should move a great step in quickly adopt the new change in blackboard and applies in their teaching processes.

Week 5 - Learning Organizations Survey

According to Garvin (1993), learning organization is an organization skilled at creating, acquiring, and transferring knowledge, and at modifying its behaviour to reflect new knowledge and insights.

From this definition, it is obvious that we need the learning process to acquire and transfer knowledge among the members of organization (i.e. learning process and practices). In the meantime, the “readiness” of members (e.g. openness to ideas, psychological factor) also plays an important role in the learning organization (i.e. supportive learning environment). 

You may find interested in watching the "Importance of Learning in Organizations" in which David Garvin and Amy Edmondson, Professors of Harvard Business School, were interviewed.

Learning organization scores summary	The results indicates that our organization hasn't done well about learning in different areas.  In particular, there is much room for improvement in leadership as well as learning environment.  Needless to say, the importance of leadership is to direct organizational members on the right track and tells us how to get there where we should go.
Concrete learning Processes and Practices	Our school is able to collect information and conduct good analysis then.  However, it seems difficult to put "analysis" into practices. There does not have enough medium and practices in which organizational members can acquire and exchange knowledge from and to one another.
Supportive Learning Environment	Our organizational members seem not get ready yet.  They may get used to conventional ways of doing things and be fear of change.  But one thing is not bad that time for reflection may not be a problem for them.
Suggestions	Organizational leaders have to share the vision and set clear goals. Then appropriate learning processes and practices can be developed and facilitated.  To get members ready, two-ways communications should be conducted with them so that they are able to understand the needs and benefits of learning.

week 6 - story telling in organizational learning

We have an experience of having lots of students sit in Financial Management lectures on Wednesday.   Originally, 175 HRM students have enrolled in that lecture, but turns out to have more than 200 students from other streams sitting in the lecture.  The reasons may be the lecturers are popular in lecture explanation and the students would like to fit in their schedule in attending lectures.
This cause the overcrowding  and queueing  problem at the lecture session.   A lot of students not taking the seats have complained to the program leader about the problem.   To solve the problem, we have the suggested solutions as follows:

1. only registered students can be allowed to attend the lecture;
2. a card with student name and student no. has been given to every registered student;
3. a spot check will be carried out randomly during the lecture;
4. other stream students can only be allowed to sit in the lecture when there are vacant seats available at the lecture hall.

Last but not all, I would like to state my suggestions to solve the issues:-

1. attendance sheets will be distributed at the lecture hall and make sure the registered students have attended the lectures and not the other stream students.
2. spot check the attendance of students by asking them questions and review if any other stream students are present at the lecture.
3. go around the lecture hall and discuss with students during the break of lecture.  This will act as a random check of other stream students who sit in the lectures.