In this week, I will be looking into education, specifically into my organization using scenario planning approach. Despite the imaginative nature of scenario planning, there are systematic ways in carrying out the process. Below is one of the approaches to accomplish the process.
(Source: http://www.gbn.com/images/scenario_thinking_process.gif)
Focus
I am looking into the development of my organization in the next 10 years.
Dynamics
Contextual environment
- Changing of government official
The current session of government will end its service this year. The new Chief Executive as well as the composition of government officials are yet to be decided. The vision and the direction in education could be changing dramatically. - Increasing number of children with non-local parents
With an increasing birth rate of children with non-local parents, the composition of student population will be changing. There could be more Mandarin-speaking students in Hong Kong, and the culture of students could vary a lot.
Working environment
- Advance of technology in e-Books and e-Resources
e-Learning has been proposed for some years. The evolution of new products and new technologies can change the habitat in education a lot. Students may be able to afford an e-Book by their own, enabling them to learn from multimedia elements and taking notes in electronic format.
My organization
- Changing of principal and vice-principals
Our vice-principal will retire next year, and our principal will be retiring in 3 years. With the change in head personnel in my school, the vision and direction could be changing. Moreover, even though new management may be in place in the next few years, they might not be very much familiar with our work now. More jobs will be taken over by middle managers to avoid problems during handover. - Opting out from the through-train mode
Under the through-train mode, our school is required to admit all students from our affiliated primary school who are intended to come. The intake of students has become worse, as the more capable ones are always looking for better schools, while the less capable ones tend to take our school as a shelter. Last year, we decided to opt out from the through-train mode, and the primary 1 students of this session will be the last batch of through-train students. In 10 years, our school will be able to admit outsiders again.
Scenario Framework
Among those uncertainties above, I would be taking the increasing number of children with non-local parent and the opting out from the through-train mode to be the dynamics to be studied in this section.
When looking into the increase in birth rate of children with non-local parents, it brings impacts to education in Hong Kong. These children may be admitting to local schools or having their education in mainland China. If they decide to study in mainland China, the number of students may drop, and there may be school closing down due to insufficient number of students. On the other hand, if they decide to study in Hong Kong, more social benefits should be imposed in school. Moreover, the language and cultural background may change.
At the same time, we have terminate the through-train mode with our affiliated primary school. It could be positive as we can control the quality of the student intake. However, we do not have a guarantee number of students for each session. We need to work harder in order to raise the school's reputation, so as to minimize the negative effects from this change.
Insight and Foresight
In view of the above study, it is likely that the student intake will drop in both quality and quantity in the next 10 years. We may need to plan ahead for the change.
More References:
IEA Training Manual - Module 6
http://www.unep.org/ieacp/iea/training/manual/module6/1255.aspx
How Scenario planning is good
http://www.scenarioselling.com/?page_id=59
I think the main barrier of using e-Books is the price of hardware like iPad. Although every school have a computer room nowadays, the chance of using computer by students in normal lesson is very small. If we require the students to bring their own iPad or Netbook, some of the students cannot affort it. It is because until now an iPad is about $3000, not all the family can affort it. I believe it will be success when the price of iPad drop to about $1000, and I am look forward for the new tablet produces by Google.
回覆刪除Hi Eric, thanks for your post. Apart from the issues that mentioned, schools in Hong Kong also need to consider their geographic location. Some schools locate in districts where there are not enough number of students. Those schools need to consider various scenarios so that they can survive in the coming years.
回覆刪除Edward (MITEChange)
Yes, the external environment is rather complex. But I believe that with the advanced technology and less intake of students due to lower birth rate, the quality of education will be improved. In the meantime, the "alliance" of primary and secondry schools becomes more and more important.
回覆刪除Eric, I agree with the current situation in Hong Kong. Low birth rate of HK kids, high incoming of Mainland Chinese kids from poor class families will make the education system and policy more worse and bankrupt. Creating one "alliance" of primary and secondary schools and colleges will play an important role in future education trend. Staff and students resources can be better distributed at coming futre. We can take Baptist schools, Baptist SCE colleges and Baptist University as good example in illustration. How about Caritas? They have adopted the same strategy as well. Good strategic plan is made by the managemetn.
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