Scenario Planning Activity
- Develop ideas of
where you could incorporate the use of Scenario Planning in your organization
Scenario Planning is the part of strategic planning
that relates to the tools and technologies for managing the uncertainties and
discontinuities of change in the future (Ringland, 2006).
To my understanding, the uncertainties do not like
risk in which we can “calculate” the chance of occurrence of a particular event.
The uncertainties mean we know nothing about the outcomes and consequences.
As I am teaching associate degree programs at
community college, I think I’m interested much about the “survival” of
associate degree programs in future due to different driving forces in the
environment. May I share herewith my ideas developed according to the five
steps Scenario Planning Process as below.
- Identify focal issue
· my organization
has to think the uncertainties about the demand of associate degree programs in
Hong Kong and how this will impact on our
organization.
- Search for driving forces / 3.
Find uncertainties
· Political
Forces - you may know the new Chief
Executive of HK will be on board in July 2012.
This may indicate to us that the education policy may undergo a change
again. Currently, the demand of associate degree programs is high because of
the double cohorts of students from DSE and HKAL. But this may no longer be
true in the future. The government always encourages the establishment of new private
universities. This also impacts on the “survival” of associate degree programs.
· Demographic
Forces - now more and more Mainland China students are interested in studying in Hong Kong . So
associate degree programs may be their choice.
· Cultural
Forces - although Mainland China
· Technological
Forces - with the advanced technology,
more and more distance learning programs will open as they become more suited
to students’ learning style, e.g. providing convenience to students.
· Competition
- it’s expected that more and more
private universities will be established soon.
This definitely puts associate degree program in a less favourable
position.
- Formulate scenario logic
- Demand of associate degree program increases because of change in
government policy on education
- demand of associate degree program drops sharply
- demand of associate degree program remains stable, due to the
intake of Mainland
- associate degree programs shut down at all
- Strategic analysis
Possible course of actions to
address the scenarios:
- lobbing government in respect of education policy
- proactively doing promotion in Mainland
- “transform” college into private university
- open new part-time programs
- collaboration with overseas universities for top degree programs
- teaching staff may be made redundant in case the demand of
associate degree programs drops
You may find interested in watching the 9-phases for proper scenario planning analysis.
Or else, you may look at the "full version" of "Executive Education - Scenario Planning and Decision Making by Dr. Paul Shoemaker".
Hi Alvis, I totally agree with you that the demand of associate degree programmes is going to reduce in the nearly future because of the private universities and the policy of 334. In my organization, our college head is going to cut the higher diploma programmes and remain the associate degree programmes so as to keep the enrolment number of the associate degree.
回覆刪除Very nice description, supplemented with nice video clips.
回覆刪除Are associate degrees just a product of insufficient places of bachelor degrees? Or are they really practical in providing students another ways for pursuing further academic?
回覆刪除Anyway, scenario planning is necessary for the uncertain enrollment of in the coming years.
Edward (MITEChange)
That's right, the competition in sub-degree sector is keen. Your consideration of all the driving forces is important to formulate a better scenario planning for the organization to survive.
回覆刪除Thanks for your video sharing about the 9-phases for a scenario planning analysis. It is interesting to read your suggesed six possible course of actions to address the scenarios in our college. If more time is allowed, I guess you may spend time to study the course actions and see which area can be improved and revised. Good work in writing your scenario plan.
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