Week 7 – Scenario Planning

Develop ideas of where I could incorporate the use of scenario planning in my

organization.

According to Scenario planning is a method for learning about the future by understanding the nature and impact of the most uncertain and important driving forces affecting our world. It is a group process which encourages knowledge exchange and development of mutual deeper understanding of central issues important to the future of your business. (Martin Börjessm, 2007)

We share and envision scenarios in our working organization.  The ability to envision and anticipate different future possibilities seems to be a key capability for managing uncertainty.  Uncertainty refers to a state that we have limited knowledge and it is impossible to exactly describe the existing state or a future outcome.

As our organization is a community college of a local university, we face the challenge of our college’ marketing plan and students intake at 2012.  

The 2012 double cohort year presents an admission challenge for our organization with two cohorts of about HKALE 31,000 candidates and about 71,000 HKDSE candidates.  The HKSAR government has recently launched an E-application platform for current year secondary students to submit applications between February and May 2012 to meet the challenge event.  Our organization is one of the major supporters of this service and top management do expect the stage of a further new building being completed in August.  I would like to share my ideas developed regarding the scenario planning steps as follows:

Scenario planning steps

1.        Identify focal issue

Our college has to face the uncertainty of our new academic building ready to be used at coming semester A of 2012.  Does our college have enough space and facilities to accommodate for the new intake and old intake CCCU students at current year 2012. Our marketing campaign and admission arrangements will be adjusted to tie in with this development.

2.  Search for driving forces &  3. Find uncertainties

The four driving forces are stated as follows:

n   Political forces

n   Demographic forces

n   Cultural forces

n   Technological forces

I would like to select three drivers out of four that are both important and the most uncertain in our case:

(1)  Political forces

Due to the successful case of Shue Yan college being recognized as private university status by government, more new private universities will be set up in new coming years.  The new elected Chief Executive may have his own idea about the education policy.  It will lead to a change of education policy on sub-degree and degree programmes.

(2)     Demographic forces

Due to the open door policy adopted by HK government, many mainland Chinese would like to stay in Hong Kong for further study and job finding.  They may be interested to take the associate degree or higher diploma programs to upgrade their academic qualification.

(3)       Cultural Forces

Mainland Chinese and Hong Kong students may have variance in their cultural problems like language, learning style, living style and point of view.

(4)       Technological forces

Web-based learning or e-learning programs will be popular and common at sub-degree and degree programs.  This will attract more students either new and old cohort students to enroll those programs.

4. Formulate scenario logic

l   Demand of enough venue spaces for two cohorts students;

l   Demand of teaching and facilities resources;

l   Demand of extra places for associate degree and degree programs.

5.  Strategic analysis

(a)  Review last year’s results.

(b)  Update the teaching and administrative staff on our latest efforts in reinforcing our college brand. 

(c)  The flow of admission process will be discussed at the staff briefing.
(d)  Discuss the added features in the college’s computer system.

(e)  Checking of applicants’ English language qualifications and other academic qualifications. 

Our top management does plan and expect the new academic building to be ready for use at coming new semester in September.  However, they do have alternative plan to rent other colleges’ buildings for the temporary use of lectures or tutorial rooms for the new and old intake students.